How AI Can Revolutionize TV Programming and Advertising by Tapping into Emotional Signals

The following byline by Digital Remedy COO David Zapletal was featured in Performance Marketing World. In it, he examines whether the industry could combine behavioral data with viewers’ responses to TV shows to develop emotion-driven advertising.

The year is 2030. A top programmer at a major broadcast network is trying to make a decision about whether to continue a high-budget sci-fi series. The live ratings are so-so, and the streaming audience is loyal, but not growing. Plus, the cast wants raises.

It may be time to move on and hit the cancellation button – but then the network’s data science team shares the latest ERQ – Emotional Resonance Quotient scores – and the numbers are off the charts.

Turns out major auto brands and travel companies will pay a hefty premium for a high ERQ – pushing the pricey show’s overall return on investment well into the black.

Suddenly, this unnamed sci-fi show is back on the schedule for another season – saved by AI.

Sounds far fetched? While ERQ is a hypothetical metric – it may not be the stuff of sci-fi fantasies. In fact, there are signs that artificial intelligence technology will be able to help brands and programmers extract valuable data on TV viewers’ mindsets and even their emotional states – data that could upend how and when brands look to reach TV viewers with their messages.

It may even help programmers better figure out what kind of shows to make – dramatically altering a business that still relies on focus groups and pilot testing – and endures a high degree of failure.

Alas, this uber-intelligent future won’t be easy to achieve, as there are a number of technological and logistical challenges to overcome before AI starts greenlighting the next great cop show or medical drama, while helping marketers reach consumers who are more than ready to hear their pitches.

AI Targeting: Right Ad, Right Place, Really Right Time

Let’s not forget that the TV ad business is already in the middle of a massive reinvention. Not only are viewers shifting to streaming in huge numbers, but brands and ad tech companies are trying to exploit the fact that more TV is being delivered digitally to emulate as many attributes of digital advertising as possible. That includes everything from targeting specific users based on a wealth of attributes to delivering more customized creatives.

The advent of AI technology promises to accelerate this process. But given the unique nature of TV viewing – large screens, immersive shows – AI could theoretically take things much further. In fact, NBC Universal has begun experimenting with targeting ads within specific shows based on content themes – intense scenes, funny moments, and emotional content – all using AI.

It’s obviously quite early in this journey, and not only does NBCU have to prove that AI is capable of this type of targeting – but that this sort of mindset targeting is effective. Still, it’s not hard to imagine the many directions this could go.

For example, it’s possible that mindset-targeting proves more potent than delivering ads based on old-fashioned demographics or digital IDs. Maybe TV’s role as a mass marketing branding vehicle changes or is even eclipsed. Perhaps some forms of programming—e.g., emotionally charged shows—provide more resonance with certain types of advertising.

At the same time, maybe other types of programming – e.g., less intense, more passive viewing – puts people in the right frame of mind to take actions or make purchases.

This could have a massive influence on performance advertising-and its role in the TV ecosystem. For years, media companies have been on a quest to prove TV’s ability to drive actions, including purchases. That’s because there are massive amounts of ad budgets locked up in performance driven vehicles that TV would love to tap into.

The more that AI can help determine which kind of mindsets and programming lend themselves to driving consumers to respond to ads they encounter – the bigger the TV ad business can become over time.

This is all very theoretical, but if AI-driven, mindset-buying reveals multiple new revenue lanes for TV, it could radically impact programming decisions. TV networks may soon evaluate individual shows from a CTV ROI perspective. What if, say, action adventure shows drive not just high ratings, but more responsive mindsets?

Conversely, could certain lower-rated shows become more valuable for specific types of brands?

AI could reshape TV as we know it. Or not. After all, there are a lot of ifs here.

Don’t Get All Emotional

For starters, if AI-driven mindset targeting is to pay dividends, the tools and technology used for such an endeavor must have enough data to learn from. Just how much information can be extracted from TV programming and viewers’ responses to it is an open question. And even if AI is able to train itself to measure mindset at scale, how easy will it be to prove its worth? There is likely a lot of experimenting ahead for networks and purveyors before they have full confidence in these tactics.

Plus, if AI targeting does work, will brands have the systems in place to act on it? For example, if media buyers can’t fully optimize based on mindset in a timely fashion, its usage may be limited.

Then there’s the question of just where emotional targeting will fit in the TV ad process. Change in the media business is never easy. Witness the past few years, as ad buyers and networks have grappled with a slew of new measurement providers promising to reinvent TV currency. So far, progress has not kept up the enthusiasm fueling this crusade.

More recently, brands and media companies have explored employing a new set of attention metrics as a perhaps better way to gauge the impact of both media environments and individual creatives. This effort is still finding its footing.

So where does mindset targeting fit in? Will marketers view AI targeting as yet another option on the menu? Could it prove so lucrative that it replaces the current suite of options? In this surprisingly conservative industry, it’s often smart to bet on the former.

OK, What’s next?

This would seem to be the right time for forward-thinking brands to experiment widely. Surely, NBCU won’t be the only player to make an emotion-driven ad push. Mastering this kind of media buying will take a significant commitment from ads agencies, along with a willingness to operate without establishing benchmarks, historical precedents, or fully ironed-out processes for the time being.

To help, expect a number of startups to emerge as either potential AI intermediaries or complementary vendors. This area is ripe for new contenders to emerge and help lead the industry forward. We might even see an arms race among third-party partners looking to create scalable solutions across pubs.

Ideally, if mindset advertising shows promise and results, emotional-based targeting could become another strong option for advertisers looking for new ways to break through the noise and creative influence.

Either way, the effectiveness of the tech will largely depend on the ability of the AI to understand which audiences are the most impactable

Ultimately, if marketers can combine that information with behavioral and attitudinal data, we may finally be able to deliver relevant advertising to the right consumer at the right time and place.
And your favorite show just might get saved by the machines.